Does history repeat itself? Or do people repeat history?
If you subscribe to the latter, then the Dodger front office might be well advised to take a look at recent Dodger history to help inform its offseason decisions regarding the futures of Don Mattingly, Rod Barajas and Jonathan Broxton. I'll talk about each in turn.
A decision with regard to Mattingly hinges, of course, on whether or not Joe Torre decides to return as Dodger manager in 2011. The Dodgers have made it well known that the Mattingly, the current Dodger hitting coach and despite having no formal managerial experience, has the inside track on becoming the next Dodger manager should Torre depart. Their stated rationale has been that sliding Mattingly over as Torre's replacement would help maintain long-term organizational continuity.
It appears that Mattingly's primary competition from within would be Tim Wallach, current manager of the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate, the Albuquerqee Isotopes. The former Dodger third baseman is currently the best managerial prospect in the Pacific Coast League, according to Baseball America.
According to Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times, Baseball America is not alone in its praise of Wallach:
Wallach ... is finishing his fourth season as a minor league manager, the last two at triple A, the highest rung on the minor league ladder. Last summer, he led the Isotopes to a playoff berth and a franchise-record 80 wins (in 144 games), winning the Pacific Coast League's manager of the year award. Baseball America named him the PCL's best managerial prospect.
And it's hard to find anyone, including Colletti, who disagrees.
"I think the world of Tim. He's going to be a very good big league manager," Colletti says.
Says De Jon Watson, the Dodgers' assistant general manager for player development: "He definitely has the skill set to manage a big league club. He's a blue-collar type, a scrapper."
Says former major league outfielder John Moses, Wallach's hitting coach the last two seasons: "He deserves a shot. What you look for in a major league manager, he has all those qualities."
All of which leaves the Dodgers facing a tough decision: If they promote Mattingly, they are all but certain to lose Wallach to another organization, something Colletti acknowledges.
The Dodgers know full well that awarding Mattingly the Dodger managerial job would virtually mean Wallach accepts a major league managing position elsewhere. Eleven years ago, they also had a highly-regarded, homegrown managerial prospect polishing his craft at Triple-A: Mike Scioscia. The Dodgers did not give him an opportunity at the big-league level, Scioscia accepted an offer with the Angels and the rest is history.
If the Dodger wish to maintain organizational continuity and the two top prospects are both from within the organization, I would argue that hiring Wallach, who comes equipped with years of managerial experience and who already is a known quantity as a manager, is the better choice than Mattingly.
Rod Barajas has been a welcome addition to LA, both with his play on the field and his enthusiasm for playing with his hometown Dodgers. In nine games since joining LA, Barajas has hit for a .321 average with four home runs and a blistering 1.262 OPS. This is not the first time that a 34-year-old late-season addition has blossomed in a Dodger uniform. Just last year, Ronnie Belliard took the starting second base job from Orlando Hudson with a 1.034 O.P.S. in 24 late regular season games. Belliard parlayed that performance into a new contract with the Dodgers in 2010, a season which has largely been a disappointment (.626 O.P.S.).
So before everyone gets too excited about Barajas -- and completely forgets about Russell Martin -- let's step back and take a look at the forest rather than the trees. Barajas is 34, Martin is 27. Barajas's career O.P.S. is .696, Martin's is .761. Even in Martin's last two seasons, the worst offensively of his career, Martin has O.P.S. marks of .680 and .679, not unlike Barajas's O.P.S. in 2010 before joining the Dodgers (.677).
To be sure, there are two critical issues the Dodgers have to consider with regard to Martin: his health and contract statuses. He is currently suffering from a torn labrum/fracture in his right hip and his future as a catcher is in jeopardy. Furthermore, having made $5.05 million this season, Martin is eligible for salary arbitration for the 2011 seeason.
To me, the Dodger plans for Rod Barajas ought not to be based on his 2010 performance in LA, which I contend is an aberration a la Ronnie Belliard's 2009 honeymoon with the Dodgers. Rather, a decision with regard to Martin must first be made -- and choosing not to offer him arbitration based on the uncertainty of his future health would certainly be justifiable -- before deciding what role and contract they may offer to Rod Barajas for 2011.
Finally, Jonathan Broxton is experiencing a second-half meltdown of Chad Billingsley proportions. Remember Billingsley's second half disappearance in 2009? After a strong first-half (9-4, 3.38 ERA) the 2009 all star finished the year going 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA. But the Dodgers wisely recognized that the young righty was still only 25 and that it would be in their best interest to provide ample opportunity for Billingsley's talent resurface. He has rewarded the Dodger patience with a 2010 season that is in line with his overall career stats -- an ERA in the 3.50 range along with the best WHIP of his career, 1.29.
In the same way, Broxton's second-half decline would appear to be a hiccup in an otherwise solid, if not stellar, career to date. Signed for $7 million in 2011, it would make sense for the Dodgers to give every opportunity to Broxton -- as they had for Billingsley -- to rebound. Other than Hong Chi Kuo, who becomes arbitration-eligible in 2011, the Dodgers have no other known quantities they can bring back from the bullpen into the 2011 season. Exercising additonal patience with Broxton, who is still just 26 and would be playing for a new 2012 contract next season, could put the Dodgers in position for receiving a handsome reward in 2011.
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